@fella6_9 Marshall and white have Harris getting 30% and the rest are 75%-25%... Allen was 54-43 in 2020 Trump can't sustain if this kind of margins happen in rural areas https://t.co/5RS3TO23AG
@fella6_9 I just started digging in the data, it's not a thread, just me reading out loud. I am looking at deep red districts first. It's only 11% and GOP usually does better same day but there are precincts in Indiana where Trump is underperfoming. Let me grab some screen shots.
Then looking at Hamilton County if we look at a Blue district it looks like Harris makes gains. Its gonna be 12-15 pts in red and 3-5 in Blue night Trump will lose bigly
If these patterns come in from Indiana and Kentucky rural districts across the country, Kamala is President. These early returns, granted not enough, show Trump underperforming 2020. Harris approaching almost 50% in some areas
@Techpriestess01 @ConceptualJames So there could be some wiggle room on when we start the clock depending on the publication dates of the journals Thank you, I did not know.
@fella6_9 When Trump went real tits up over the Casinos in 2003/2004 he was saved by Felix Satter with Bayrock and Mark Burnett with the Apprentice When Trump went broke again in 2008, still over leveraged from a deal Thomas Barrack negotiated, they really pounced
@fella6_9 theory: nobody not expecting him to win, Trump nor Feds. Trump in it to maximize grift, Gov probably had active investigations going, saw chance to cultivate more assets oopsie, he won Russia pwned FBI counterilligence office in NYC Then McConnell, next Supreme Court
@fella6_9 which BTW it seems the GOP does have around a 250k lead if you assume an 8% GOP crossover and a 54% NPA breaking to Harris If those numbers are 10-12% and 56-59% Harris, then the GOP would be losing in Florida, I like looking at the deep red returns in the panhandle