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Greg McVerry / Writing & conversations
Browse the things I’ve written, shared and replied to.
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6 posts have no recorded date and appear under “All dates.”
227 posts
In reply to twitter.com ↗
@emptywheel I saw another collection of red state polling, granted not much polling done but we will see on average 12-15 point swings in deep red districts. Some up to 25-30 Trump will get demolished in popular votes
Greg McVerryRT @MyNameIsntRyann: @jgmac1106 Of course the people who thought they knew more about pandemics than Anthony Fauci also know more about Iow…
Greg McVerryRT @adhdwonderwoman: @jgmac1106 https://youtu.be/JO6eydRPpyU
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@dmoersr (with Real Clear Defense, but sure they know more about polling in Iowa then Ann Selzer)
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@adhdwonderwoman we all love data: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=71yb2D1En50
Greg McVerryWhy must every discussion of sampling methods devolve into bet me, bro? https://t.co/jU1Ut5dnlT
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@dmoersr You are missing the point entirely. If Trump was still up 3-5 points in Iowa That means he is gonna get smoked in the Electoral college and popular vote
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@dmoersr @luoxiaxia @jaselzer @DMRegister with Real Clear Defense....and you want people to take you serious....come on.... You can't compare reliability of RCP and Selzer & Co Different leagues in skillsets
Greg McVerryIf you triangulate this data with other senior data in early voting states The trend line is there https://t.co/h67BcITsN1
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@dmoersr @luoxiaxia @jaselzer @DMRegister If she shifted Iowa 10 points, and that pattern, on average holds across country, Trump gets smoked
Greg McVerryThe Des Moines Register/Mediacom must be wrong...Charlie Kirk says so Is a really silly take https://t.co/ZF7aeuc6h6
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@dmoersr @luoxiaxia @jaselzer @DMRegister Polls are predictions. They are neither right nro wrong until later. It was +15 in 2020...That would make eroding support for Trump a trend line. Which part of the data do you think is wrong? she makes all her data open..not just crosstabs raw data
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@dmoersr @luoxiaxia @jaselzer @DMRegister I am saying that the poll could indicate a +10 point swing in red districts. If that pattern holds across red districts, Trump will get smoked in the Electoral College and popular vote
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@dmoersr @luoxiaxia @jaselzer @DMRegister I said, where has Harris been going? You brought up idea you can track internal polls by where candidates go, not me and I said, gender differential, not party identification
Greg McVerryThe prediction gonna hold 10-15 point swing, on average in Red districts towards Harris 3-5 point swing, on average in Bue districts towards
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@dmoersr @luoxiaxia @jaselzer @DMRegister Sha has spent a lot of time in Texas and Florida. What does that tell you? Again, each poll is just one data point, but when triangulated with a +10 gender differential in early voting Trump gonna get smoked
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@CouldntBePapaP @EWErickson @jaselzer I am saying the same thing I always do. Every poll is a text, you have to read them as one data point in the genre and question every author @jaselzer is trusted. Even if it was Trump +5 that would be a disaster for Trump Use math, not bias
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@dmoersr @luoxiaxia @jaselzer @DMRegister Because nobody had any idea swing would be dramatic ...well some of us have said it....but with data from places like OH-6 and NY-3 Even if swing is 12 points and Trump carries Iowa...it means Trump loses in landslide Learn history of Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll
Greg McVerryFolks @jaselzer poll has Harris beating Trump in Iowa.... Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters Even if off by a few points...this much movement spells doom for Trump across America
Greg McVerryIn reply to twitter.com ↗
@BrianSBU2011 while voting for Team Tyrant
Greg McVerry